The Fed Paused. The Fuel Squeeze Didn’t.
The Fed held rates, real yields eased before the meeting, and diesel pressure persisted. Three original charts explain the split and the tests for broader market relief.
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Oil Above $110: Why the Record-High Scenario Is Back in Focus
Oil above $110 puts the record-high scenario back in focus. We revisit our September thesis using revised EIA forecasts, daily spot prices, inventory location…
Read the evidence-led brief →Gold vs Bitcoin in 2026: The Inflation Hedge Test Most Investors Get Wrong
Gold vs Bitcoin as an inflation hedge: September 2026 ETF flows, October real yields, oil and four falsifiable market regimes explained with original AssetScreener…
Read the evidence-led brief →S&P 500 Volatility: The 53‑Day Calm Has Broken
The S&P 500’s 53-day calm ended with a 1.11% decline. Original charts examine volatility, market breadth and the next tests for a lasting regime…
Read the evidence-led brief →October 2026 Macro Outlook: Strong Demand, Weak Hiring
Demand is expanding, hiring is soft and real yields are rising. Three original charts explain the October 2026 macro outlook for stocks, bonds, gold…
Read the evidence-led brief →Stock Market Outlook: Nasdaq’s Record Meets the $100 Oil Test
Nasdaq is at a record, but $100 oil and elevated real yields keep the rally on trial. Three original charts show what would confirm…
Read the evidence-led brief →10-Year Treasury Yield at 5%: The Test for Stocks, Gold and Bitcoin
A 5% Treasury yield makes taking risk a more demanding choice. Real yields reveal why — and what stocks, gold and Bitcoin need to…
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