Material risks
- Market prices can move sharply and remain disconnected from a thesis longer than expected.
- Sources can be incomplete, delayed, revised, mistranslated or wrong.
- Models can overfit, drift, fail out of sample or miss structural change.
- Liquidity, spreads, taxes, leverage and implementation can materially change outcomes.
- Past performance and backtests do not guarantee future results.
No personalised recommendation
Product outputs are general research and must not be treated as a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security.
Designed response
Important theses expose counterarguments, invalidation conditions, evidence quality and uncertainty. Failed theses remain visible.