U.S. Financial Conditions Today: NFCI & Market Stress
The Chicago Fed NFCI and St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index aggregate different market inputs. Positive readings indicate tighter or more stressed conditions relative to each index’s normal level.
Liquidity and Yield curve are providing support, while Policy & real rates is resisting the backdrop. The disagreement is the main result—not a calculation error.
Opposing sleeves explain why assets can diverge even when one headline datapoint looks strong.
Use the relevant asset page to compare this backdrop with trend and relative strength.
U.S. financial conditions today
NFCI and the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index are read together with nominal and real Treasury yields so market stress is not reduced to one number.
Chicago Fed NFCI
-0.560NFCI is below zero, which indicates looser-than-average financial conditions on this index.
1M change: -0.02 pp · Observation 2026-09-11St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
-0.8477The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index is below zero, indicating below-average stress. It has moved lower over the last month.
1M change: -0.08 pp · Observation 2026-09-1110-Year Real Treasury Yield
2.61%Inflation-adjusted discount-rate pressure on long-duration assets.
1M change: +0.17 pp · Observation 2026-09-1710-Year Treasury Yield
4.94%Nominal long-rate pressure on borrowing costs and valuations.
1M change: +0.22 pp · Observation 2026-09-17Are financial conditions tightening or easing?
NFCI is below zero, which indicates looser-than-average financial conditions on this index.
The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index is below zero, indicating below-average stress. It has moved lower over the last month.
These indexes can look easy while real yields remain restrictive. That is why AssetScreener keeps the stress indexes and the cost of capital separate instead of forcing them into one headline.
Inputs used in this analysis
Every value below comes from the stored raw series. Derived changes are calculated at request time.
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index
-0.560NFCI is -0.560; positive values are tighter than average.
Observation 2026-09-11 · Index FRED NFCI source record →St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
-0.8477Financial stress is -0.848 around a zero normal level.
Observation 2026-09-11 · Index FRED STLFSI4 source record →10-Year Real Treasury Yield
2.61%The 10-year real yield is 2.61%.
Observation 2026-09-17 · Percent FRED DFII10 source record →10-Year Treasury Yield
4.94%The latest value is near the framework’s neutral zone.
Observation 2026-09-17 · Percent FRED DGS10 source record →Stress indexes and borrowing costs can disagree.
NFCI and STLFSI describe broad financial stress relative to normal. Real and nominal Treasury yields describe the cost of capital. Easy stress indexes do not automatically mean cheap financing.
- Negative NFCI generally means looser-than-average conditions.
- Negative STLFSI generally means below-average financial stress.
- Real yields matter for long-duration assets even when stress indexes are calm.
- Confirm the macro reading with observable market trends.
Verify every series at the source.
- Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index [NFCI], retrieved through FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Series record.
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved through FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Series record.
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 10-Year Real Treasury Yield [DFII10], retrieved through FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Series record.
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 10-Year Treasury Yield [DGS10], retrieved through FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Series record.
This framework describes conditions; it does not predict a market return.
Release lags, revisions, threshold choices and transmission delays can materially change the interpretation.
Common questions about this data
Short answers use the same definitions and limitations as the live framework above.
What is the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index?
NFCI combines financial indicators into an index where positive values generally indicate tighter-than-average conditions and negative values indicate looser-than-average conditions.
What is the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index?
It combines market stress indicators around a zero normal level. Positive values indicate above-average stress and negative values indicate below-average stress.
Are negative financial-condition indexes bullish?
Not automatically. They indicate easier or less stressed conditions relative to the index baseline, but growth, valuations, real yields and other risks still matter.
Why include real and nominal Treasury yields?
Stress indexes can look calm while the cost of capital remains high. Real and nominal yields provide a separate view of financing and discount-rate pressure.
How should financial conditions be used?
As context. AssetScreener compares financial stress, rates and observable market trends rather than treating the indexes as direct buy or sell signals.
Built to be checked, quoted and revisited.
Canonical URL, update date, definitions and original-source links are kept together so readers and search systems can verify the context.
- Suggested citation
- AssetScreener (2026-08-30). U.S. Financial Conditions Today: NFCI & Market Stress. https://www.assetscreener.com/macro/financial-conditions/
- Underlying sources
- Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), NFCI, STLFSI4, DFII10, DGS10, AssetScreener macro methodology