U.S. Growth & Labour Today: Production, Unemployment & Sahm Rule
Industrial production, unemployment and the real-time Sahm indicator provide three distinct views of cyclical momentum and labour-market deterioration.
Liquidity and Yield curve are providing support, while Policy & real rates is resisting the backdrop. The disagreement is the main result—not a calculation error.
Opposing sleeves explain why assets can diverge even when one headline datapoint looks strong.
Use the relevant asset page to compare this backdrop with trend and relative strength.
U.S. growth and labour today
Industrial production, unemployment and the real-time Sahm indicator provide complementary views of cyclical momentum and labour-market deterioration.
Industrial Production
103.068Year-over-year change in U.S. industrial production.
12M change: +1.2% · Observation 2026-08-01U.S. Unemployment Rate
4.1%Current unemployment rate and recent change.
3M change: -0.20 pp · Observation 2026-08-01Real-Time Sahm Rule Indicator
0.07%A labour-market deterioration indicator with a 0.50 percentage-point threshold.
3M change: -0.13 pp · Observation 2026-06-01Is U.S. recession risk rising?
Industrial production has changed +1.2% year over year. Unemployment is 4.1% and has moved -0.20 pp over three months. The real-time Sahm indicator is 0.07%, currently below the 0.50 threshold.
These observations describe current cyclical stress; they do not produce a recession probability or a market-timing signal. Growth should be read together with the yield curve and financial conditions.
Inputs used in this analysis
Every value below comes from the stored raw series. Derived changes are calculated at request time.
Industrial Production Index
103.068Industrial production is +1.2% over twelve months.
Observation 2026-08-01 · Index 2017=100 FRED INDPRO source record →U.S. Unemployment Rate
4.1%Unemployment changed -0.2 points over three months.
Observation 2026-08-01 · Percent FRED UNRATE source record →Real-Time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
0.07%The real-time Sahm indicator is 0.07 versus a 0.50 trigger.
Observation 2026-06-01 · Percentage points FRED SAHMREALTIME source record →Activity and labour deterioration move on different clocks.
Industrial production captures real-economy output while unemployment and the Sahm indicator focus on labour-market deterioration. A useful cyclical assessment needs both activity and labour evidence.
- Use year-over-year production growth for activity context.
- Track the unemployment level and its recent change.
- Treat the Sahm threshold as descriptive, not predictive.
- Confirm weakening growth with the yield curve and financial conditions.
Verify every series at the source.
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Industrial Production Index [INDPRO], retrieved through FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Series record.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Unemployment Rate [UNRATE], retrieved through FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Series record.
- Claudia Sahm via FRED, Real-Time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator [SAHMREALTIME], retrieved through FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Series record.
This framework describes conditions; it does not predict a market return.
Release lags, revisions, threshold choices and transmission delays can materially change the interpretation.
Common questions about this data
Short answers use the same definitions and limitations as the live framework above.
What does the U.S. growth dashboard measure?
It combines industrial production, the unemployment rate and the real-time Sahm indicator to show both activity and labour-market deterioration.
What is the Sahm Rule indicator?
It measures how much the three-month average unemployment rate has risen relative to its recent low. The commonly cited trigger is 0.50 percentage points.
Does the Sahm Rule predict recessions in advance?
It is primarily a real-time confirmation tool for labour-market deterioration, not a precise market-timing or advance forecasting signal.
Why track industrial production?
Industrial production provides a real-economy activity measure that complements labour-market data and financial-market prices.
Can growth weaken while stocks rise?
Yes. Markets discount future expectations and can diverge from current economic data, which is why AssetScreener compares macro conditions with price trends rather than assuming a one-to-one relationship.
Built to be checked, quoted and revisited.
Canonical URL, update date, definitions and original-source links are kept together so readers and search systems can verify the context.
- Suggested citation
- AssetScreener (2026-08-30). U.S. Growth & Labour Today: Production, Unemployment & Sahm Rule. https://www.assetscreener.com/macro/growth-and-labour/
- Underlying sources
- Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), INDPRO, UNRATE, SAHMREALTIME, AssetScreener macro methodology